As the PlayStation 3 and the Xbox 360 add on HD-DVD drive make their way to market, the battle between the two movie formats is more than heating up. Proponents on both sides of the aisle are lining up to say their format will win. Analysts are scrambling to predict buyers' hearts and words are getting heated.But, one dark horse hasn't been mentioned at all in this particular format war. That dark horse is movie downloads. Granted it's a completely different animal, but it could put a serious hurting on how things are currently done in regard to home movie sales.
With more and more online sites offering movie and television downloads as fast as they become released, for prices that are lower than retail box copies, it seems good, bad or otherwise, this format of a different kind could really impact the take-them-home disks of the past.
In fact, there's a study out of Great Britain that predicts downloads will become the favored format of choice over the next three years. Target has even started to sweat the issue. That retailer fears the price difference between regular DVDs and downloads will greatly impact its sales.
True the issue with Target is DVD versus downloads, but the concern still applies. Some online locations, such as CinemaNow, already offer high-def downloads. Others will no doubt follow suit.
So, the question is, can either Blu-Ray or HD-DVD compete favorably against downloads as this technology heats up?
The answer to that is very likely "it depends."
Downloads do have a lot of issues that have to be worked out before they're a force to be reckoned with, but if those issues are brought into check, the sky is the limit. Here are the advantages downloads have over either new format:
Pricing. Even the high-def movies offered online are cheaper to buy than retail boxes. The price difference right now between downloads and DVDs present a big enough gap that Target's worried.
Convenience. Why run to the store to pick up a movie when you can save time and gas by getting it online?
Storage. This is both a positive and a negative for the download format. It's a heck of a lot easier to create an extensive movie library in your hard drive than it is with boxed sets. They don't take up as much room in the average house or apartment.
The cons of this format are big ones that will need to be addressed before the dark horse even has a chance of emerging:
Backup storage. Having $5,000 worth of movies on a hard drive is a neat thing. Having $5,000 worth of movies trapped on a hard drive that crashes is a tragedy. DRM and backup issues will have to be addressed more sufficiently than they have in the past for downloads to truly thrive.
Consumer education. This is another big one. Lots of people have steered clear of downloads for fear they won't be able to watch them on their television sets or won't be able to back them up. Consumer education will have to include the easy steps in wiring a computer's video card to a TV and the ease of storage.
Fear of change. Many consumers are so used to running to the store to buy a DVD, or Blu-Ray or HD-DVD disk, they might not have even considered making the switch. Or, if they have, they could be afraid of not having the tangible disk to hold. There's a saying about a bird in the hand versus two in the bush that applies here.
Portability. The disk backup issue again crops up here, but in a different way. Right now, consumers who buy HD-DVD, Blu-Ray or DVDs can take their buys on the road, to friends houses and so on. Downloads aren't always that portable. They will need to become so for the format to really take off.
If the issues are addressed, however, downloads even those that aren't in high-def could put a real hurting on the HD-DVD and Blu-Ray formats.
Think about it. The movie fanatic will no doubt go out and buy a player in one of the two new formats. The quality will reel them in. The price probably won't scare them off. But, for either of the new formats to truly thrive, the average consumer will have to be serenaded into making purchases. Remember, Average Joe doesn't likely care about the quality difference. He only cares about seeing a movie and being able to afford it.
With downloads being so much cheaper than even the current-gen DVDs can either camp really hope to pull Average Joe's dollars over the long haul?
The winner in the format war – HD-DVD, Blu-Ray or even downloads – will likely be decided on who manages to get Average Joe's money. Those formats that don't will go the way of laser disks, VCRs and so on. All the talking up in the world from the movie fans won't do a bit of good.
The companies involved will do to the losers what they always do, cut their losses and run, and so will the retail outlets.
Now, of course, if one of the formats happens to work with downloads and allows online purchases to be written to disk and better yet, playback ability, an entirely different game could be on.
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